Actual, not seasonally adjusted, initial unemployment claims totaled 319,349 last week, according to the Department of Labor tabulation of weekly data submitted to it by the 50 state employment departments. This number was virtually unchanged from the prior week total of 319,382. As always, the media reported only the seasonally manipulated numbers showing a decline of 5,000 claims to 359,000. And that left them scratching their heads because of a major revision of 5 years worth of seasonally adjusted crap data................
The good news is that the actual data is the actual data. It doesn’t change because of some ever changing seasonal hocus pocus factor that results in 5 years worth of data revisions that still do not accurately reflect reality. I analyze only the actual data, which is the data that everyone should be focused on. The government reports it. The mainstream media and the economic punditry ignore it. It’s no wonder that their guesstimates have all the accuracy of a coin flip................
Looking at the big picture, the trend rate of decline in first time claims has consistently been around 10% for the past 18 months. There’s no sign of any change in that rate, suggesting that the economy remains in a slow growth path, shedding far fewer jobs than during the 2008-2009 collapse.As with the Molodtsova paper the distinction between real-time and current vintage data can have a significant impact on the interpretation of that data. To get a clear view of what actually just occurred a look at numbers without mysterious seasonal adjustment factors can yield more clear comparisons between current and historical data. The conclusions are particularly encouraging, but neither are they much of a surprise.
Read at The Wall Street Examiner
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