Obama's magic number

From the New York Times:

But if you want to focus on a single economic indicator, job growth during the presidential election year has a lot going for it. The job-growth numbers do at least as well as any other economic number in predicting elections, and slightly better than some other commonly used metrics, like the gross domestic product.

So the news that the economy added 243,000 jobs last month was very good for President Obama. That pace is well above the minimum level — about 150,000 jobs — that he would seem to need to increase his chances of re-election. 

Beyond the history, there are a lot of common-sense reasons to focus on the jobs numbers. They measure something tangible and important. They receive much attention from economists, investors, political campaigns and the news media, and therefore inform the public discussion. They are released every month after only a minimal lag. They are not subject to as much revision as some other economic numbers.